Aurora Forecast — Live
The oval below is NOAA's OVATION model: where aurora is most likely in the next 30 minutes, updated continuously. Press play to watch the last 24 hours of the oval breathing with the solar wind.

The Kp index is the trigger: the higher it climbs, the further the oval spills toward the equator. Tonight's odds at your latitude ride on that number.
How Far South Tonight?
| Storm level | Aurora can reach |
|---|---|
| Kp 3–4 | Alaska, northern Canada, Iceland, northern Scandinavia |
| Kp 5 (G1) | US–Canada border states, Scotland, southern Scandinavia |
| Kp 6 (G2) | Northern US tier (WA, MT, ND, MN, WI, MI, ME), northern Germany |
| Kp 7 (G3) | Mid-US (OR, IA, IL, PA, NY), central Europe |
| Kp 8–9 (G4–G5) | Rare historic displays: southern US, Mediterranean latitudes |
Rule-of-thumb latitudes under dark, clear skies — city light and cloud cover shrink every row.
Common Questions
Can I see the aurora tonight?
Check the live oval and Kp value above: at Kp 5 the aurora can reach the northern US and northern Europe; at Kp 7+ it reaches mid-latitudes. You also need darkness, clear skies, and a view toward the poleward horizon.
What time is the aurora most visible?
Statistically strongest within an hour or two of local magnetic midnight (roughly 10pm–2am local time), but during strong storms it can appear any time it is dark.
What causes the aurora?
Charged solar wind particles funneled down Earth’s magnetic field lines collide with the upper atmosphere — oxygen glows green and red, nitrogen blue and purple. The stronger the geomagnetic storm, the further the glow spills toward the equator.
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